Executive Insights
- Gold Price hits $5,047.50 on Feb 4, 2026, cementing a breakout above the $5,000 psychological level.
- US-Iran tensions are the primary driver of today’s ‘flight-to-safety’ rally.
- JP Morgan forecasts gold could reach $6,300 by Q4 2026.
- Technical support is now established at $4,995; resistance lies ahead at $5,107.
- Central banks continue to be net buyers, supporting the long-term floor for prices.
XAU/USD surges past the psychological $5,000 barrier as geopolitical risks mount. Here is your daily briefing on gold’s explosive movement.
Market Snapshot: Gold Price Live
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading firm above the historic $5,000 mark today, Wednesday, February 4, 2026. Safe-haven demand has returned with a vengeance following renewed geopolitical instability in the Middle East and mixed signals regarding the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate move.
| Asset | Spot Price (USD) | 24h Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spot Gold (XAU/USD) | $5,047.50 | +2.04% | Bullish |
| Gold Futures (Apr ’26) | $5,072.10 | +1.85% | Bullish |
| Spot Silver (XAG/USD) | $89.97 | +5.74% | Strong Buy |
Why Is Gold Rising Today?
Gold’s ascent past $5,000/oz is driven by a convergence of “fear factors” and monetary policy speculation. Three primary catalysts are dictating today’s price action:
1. Geopolitical Escalation (US-Iran)
Markets were rattled overnight by reports of the US military downing an Iranian drone in the Arabian Sea, alongside Iranian naval maneuvers near the Strait of Hormuz. This sudden escalation has triggered a classic flight-to-safety, pushing institutional capital out of equities and into non-yielding assets like gold and sovereign bonds.
2. The “Kevin Warsh” Factor
President Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh for Federal Reserve Chair has introduced significant volatility. While Warsh is perceived as a “hawk” (favoring higher rates to crush inflation)—which typically hurts gold—the market interprets the resulting economic stress as a precursor to inevitable rate cuts later in 2026. Investors are front-running this pivot, betting that the Fed will be forced to support a slowing economy.
3. Technical Breakout
Crossing the $5,000 psychological resistance was a critical technical milestone. Automated trading algorithms and CTA funds have chased this momentum, amplifying the rally. Analysts at Trading Economics note that gold is now up nearly 76% year-over-year, signaling a historic repricing of the metal.
Technical Analysis: XAU/USD Levels to Watch
The technical picture for gold remains overwhelmingly bullish but overextended on shorter timeframes. Traders should monitor these key pivot points:
- Immediate Resistance: $5,107 – A break above this could open the door to $5,200 rapidly.
- Key Support: $4,995 – The former resistance is now the primary floor. A close below this level would invalidate the immediate bullish breakout.
- RSI Indicator: The Relative Strength Index is hovering near overbought territory, suggesting a potential brief consolidation before the next leg up.
Gold Price Forecast: 2026 and Beyond
With the $5,000 barrier breached, major financial institutions are revising their targets upward. The consensus suggests that structural deficits and central bank buying will support prices well into late 2026.
| Institution | 2026 Year-End Target | Outlook |
|---|---|---|
| JP Morgan | $6,300 | Strongly Bullish |
| Deutsche Bank | $6,000 | Achievable |
| UBS | $6,200 | Bullish |
Investor Takeaway
For retail investors, the current environment emphasizes the role of gold as a portfolio hedge. The correlation between gold and traditional equities is weakening, making it a valuable diversifier during this period of “stagflationary” risk (high inflation + slowing growth).
Actionable Advice: Watch the $5,000 level closely. If XAU/USD holds this line for the remainder of the week, the path to $5,200 is technically clear.
In-Depth Q&A
Q: What is the live gold price today?
As of February 4, 2026, the spot gold price (XAU/USD) is trading around $5,047.50 per ounce, up approximately 2% from the previous session.
Q: Why is gold price rising in 2026?
Gold is rising due to increased geopolitical tensions (specifically US-Iran), expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts to combat slowing growth, and aggressive central bank buying of gold reserves.
Q: Will gold reach $6,000 in 2026?
Major banks like JP Morgan and Deutsche Bank have forecasted gold to reach or exceed $6,000 by the end of 2026, driven by currency debasement and safe-haven demand.
Q: Is now a good time to buy gold?
With gold breaking the key $5,000 resistance, momentum is strong. However, RSI indicators suggest the market is hot. Long-term investors may find value as a hedge, while traders should watch for a retest of support levels around $4,995.
Q: What affects the gold price today?
Today’s price is primarily affected by the US Dollar Index (DXY), US Treasury yields, and breaking news regarding the US-Iran conflict.
